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Jobs in leisure and hospitality have not yet returned to their pre-pandemic levels.
The jobs report released on Friday allayed worries that the jobless rate among Black Americans was steadily rising.
April saw a return to February’s 5.6% unemployment rate for Black workers, which had unexpectedly spiked to 6.4% in March—the highest level since August 2022.
The abrupt increase in that rate, economists warned, was most likely (and hopefully) a statistical fluke. Given the typically more unpredictable nature of the household survey, which serves as the foundation for the jobs report, it is likely that the sudden spike was not totally representative.
According to Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, the return to 5.6% in April was comforting.
As she put it, it’s definitely a measure to keep an eye on, calling it a “canary in the coal mine.”
“When things are going to get soft in the labor market, historically disadvantaged groups are often going to feel that first,” she stated. “It’s still important to keep an eye on, but I think it’s promising that it has dropped.”
How do 175,000 new jobs each month compare historically?
Employers in the US have added hundreds of thousands of jobs per month since the pandemic began to abate. For example, in 2022, companies added about 400,000 jobs every month on average, and in 2023, they added around 225,000 positions.
Therefore, April’s increases of 175,000 would seem insignificant in comparison. But, considering the past, it’s absolutely nothing to laugh at.
It’s significantly more than the 125,000 average gains from 1939 to 2019, even if it’s marginally less than the 183,000 average monthly gains in the ten years prior to the epidemic. It’s also higher than the 166,000 employment growth each month on average for 2019.
